To illustrate negative value in a conventional house (bet365, sportingbet), we will use the classic example of the coin. Let’s imagine that a house is fairly fair, with odds of 2.0 for Cara and 2.0 for Crown.
This situation is ideal for us bettors, but not for bookmakers , as they will not generate profits if they offer odds equal to 2.0 for both results. So, if the house offers odds of 1.95 for both results, then the following occurs on two R $ 100 bets:
Example 1: Face with 1.95 and Crown with 2.0)
- Dude: + R $ 95 (your bet and you won)
- Crown: + R $ 100 (bet from your friend and you lost)
- Result = + R $ 5 for the House
- Example 2: Crown with 1.95 and Face with 2.0
- Dude: + R $ 100 (bet from your friend and you lost)
- Crown: + R $ 95 (your bet and you won)
- Result = + R $ 5 for the House
No matter the outcome, the bookmaker will profit.
Even if the bettor guesses the results, he receives a payout less than the real chance, which is 50% (odds of 2.0). Therefore, the odds are “Less -EV”, because they have negative value, regardless of when you profit.
At these odds, over many bets, the bettor will lose money. This is an example of the opposite of a Value Bet.
Positive Value (+ EV)
In the previous example, we knew from the beginning that the fair odds would be exactly 50% (2.0) for heads or tails. Therefore, if the odds are greater than 2.0 this bet is considered a value bet (+ EV). For example, at the odds of 2.10.
If the houses offer 2.10 for Cara and the same 2.10 for Crown, you will bet because you have the value on your side. But calculating these odds at football matches is much more difficult than coin drawing.
But is this good or bad news? For me, this is great news, because bookmakers will not always set their odds. So when they get it wrong, we have + EV!
Sometimes, the odds offered by the houses are above the fair odds for a given match. In such cases, the Expected Value (EV) is positive, and in many bets, the bettor is expected to win money. Finding these matches and being on the positivity side is what we call “+ EV” or “Value bets”.
The value is sometimes intentionally offered by bookmakers
Why? Let’s go back to the example of the coins and suppose that there was a bet of R $ 200 in Cara and only R $ 100 in Crown. This poses a risk to Bookmaker, because Cara may be the result (50% real chance) and the fair pay will not be covered by the profit from bets that were lost in Crown. So how do they reduce this risk?
Conclusion
Simple by lowering Cara’s odds and increasing Crown’s odds – despite the fact that both have a 50% chance of winning – the house can create more money for those betting on Crown. And if you consider this scenario as a Value Bet, then it is a great opportunity to place a bet on Crown and get to know more about 안전사이트 추천 .
